What could bring a second lunar war in Ukraine

Russia's brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has entered its second month, with dozens of civilians killed, entire communities razed, and, perhaps most worryingly, no end in sight.

The invasion resulted in a mix of expected (economic problems in Russia) and unexpected developments (infamous Ukrainian military resistance) and left little room for certainty about what would happen next.

But what have we learned so far? asked Henry Hale, a professor at George Washington University whose experience includes Russian politics. Our conversation, slightly edited for flow and brevity, is below.

What is surprising about war?

Across Ukraine, Russian troops have faced fierce resistance from Ukrainian militants who were able to defend their country against all odds. Indeed, Ukrainian forces have recently attempted to retake territory from Russia, who described them as "able and willing" to do so.

But Ukraine's military might is not the only surprise.

Overall, I think this invasion is quite surprising, even considering the staggering magnitude of this event in world history. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has acted militarily before, perhaps a year ago, very few people thought that Putin was considering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russians don't expect it; most Ukrainians don't. And I don't think most analysts expect it either. And the exciting thing is that the Biden administration started to warn that this would happen, and they were right.

There are several other surprises that I think are also important. One, I think, is simply the vice of Russian planning for it.

First, their military strategy seems woefully inadequate for the task at hand. Based on the idea that Ukraine will surrender in a few days, it will be greeted by people taking to the streets with interest. And it is based only on a complete misunderstanding of Ukraine and the nature of Ukrainian society.

Another part of the poor planning, which I think is also very important, is that the Kremlin did not prepare the Russian public well for this kind of action. Until the actual invasion begins, the Russian media tell their people, "We will not attack." Then, Russian leaders said: "Look how hysterical the West is talking about the invasion. It's just crazy. No one is talking about an invasion."

And that meant once the actual invasion began, they had to convince the humans that it wasn't an invasion. And that means building up all the propaganda around the idea that this is just a limited military operation, that somehow there are Nazis in Kyiv attacking freedom-loving people in Russian-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine -- that it's all part of one western region that the significant contingency overthrew Russia and brought it under its control. So therefore, it is very, very difficult to support such a lie.