Analyzing the Security Guarantees: Assessing the Provisions Offered to Ukraine in the Controversial US Peace Framework

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed his readiness for "constructive, honest, and prompt work" with the United States on a newly drafted peace proposal to end the war with Russia. The announcement, made after a meeting with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll in Kyiv, signals a willingness from the Ukrainian side to engage with the diplomatic push led by Washington. However, the move comes amidst significant anxiety from Kyiv and its European allies over details of the US-backed framework, which reportedly contains provisions that mirror Russia's maximalist demands.

The United States recently presented the draft of a comprehensive, multi point peace plan to Ukraine, an initiative that has been developed in consultation with Russian officials. Details of the proposed framework, which has not been officially published, suggest that Kyiv would be required to make significant concessions. These reportedly include ceding the entire Donbas region (including areas currently controlled by Ukraine), recognizing Russia’s control over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, and substantially downsizing Ukraine’s military, potentially by more than half. Such terms have been described by some Ukrainian and European officials as tantamount to capitulation. Zelensky's office confirmed receiving the draft and noted that he outlined the "fundamental principles that matter to our people," adding that he plans to discuss the diplomatic opportunities and key points for peace with US President Donald Trump in the coming days.

The diplomatic acceleration comes at a challenging moment for Kyiv, with Russian forces making incremental gains on the battlefield and a domestic corruption scandal impacting Zelensky’s administration. European allies have reacted to the US plan with skepticism and caution, emphasizing that any solution must not be a "capitulation" for Ukraine and that European partners must be directly involved in the process. They point out that Russia has not indicated any significant concessions on its part. Ukraine's official stance remains firm on respecting its sovereignty and independence, with officials stressing that Ukrainian territory is "not for sale." Despite the controversial nature of the draft, Zelensky’s commitment to "honest work" with the US reflects a push to find a diplomatic off ramp, potentially under immense pressure, while simultaneously seeking stronger security guarantees from its international partners to prevent future aggression.

Moving forward, the focus will be on the details of the negotiations between the US and Ukrainian teams, and the forthcoming discussion between Presidents Zelensky and Trump. Kyiv’s challenge will be to secure a peace that respects its territorial integrity and sovereignty while navigating a framework that appears heavily tilted toward Moscow's demands. The process is viewed by analysts as urgent, driven partly by the looming winter and Ukraine's energy situation. Achieving a durable peace will require difficult but necessary concessions from all sides, but for Ukraine, the "red lines" of non recognition of occupied territory and limitations on its self defense remain critical, non-negotiable issues.